The reason for the political crisis in the country was explained by the poor state of the first president
President of Kazakhstan Tokayev said that his country had experienced the largest crisis in its history. According to him, the terrorists tried to seize power in the republic. But so far the official version looks too abstract. The editor-in-chief of the Fergana news agency, Daniil Kislov, said that Tokayev could simply shield members of the Nazarbayev family.
The day before, an expert on Central Asian countries published an article in which he suspected the nephews of the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, of involvement in the pogroms in Almaty. In particular, we are talking about Kairat Satybaldy, who is a well-known leader of the Kazakh Salafis. It should be noted that the media had previously suspected this man of organizing a radical underground in the south of Kazakhstan, but there was no direct evidence of this, and the Islamists themselves did not break the law. Now, when President Tokayev himself speaks of a terrorist attack, Satybaldy, along with his followers, was among the first suspects.
– If I am summoned to court, then I will never be able to prove that after the pogroms in Alma- Ata are Nursultan's nephews, in particular, Kairat Satybaldy. But, if you think logically, then there is no other force that could organize all this, neither inside the country, nor outside it, says Kislov.
– Now the tilt of the official Kazakh propaganda is towards the idea that the pogroms were organized by abstract terrorists with an Islamic radical bias. At first, it was about 20 thousand people, then Tokayev deleted this phrase from his twitter, but there are still a lot of them, because more than 5 thousand were taken under arrest alone (at the time of this writing, there are already 8 thousand – Auth. ). Presidents of Russia and Belarus Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko also talk about terrorism, but again without specifics.
Some mention Afghanistan, but in order for the militants to get from there to Almaty, they had to cross the whole of Central Asia. It’s hard to believe in the “sleeping cells” that allegedly were in Kazakhstan. The republic is almost in the first place in terms of the effectiveness of the fight against terrorism. There, every few months, corresponding exercises are held at the level of regions and the whole country. Could the authorities have not known that they have “sleeping cells”?
Ermukhamet Yertysbayev, an adviser to ex-President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, claims that the KNB deliberately did not identify some terrorist cells. If the Chekist does not suppress the rebellion, then he is participating in it. And Nazarbayev's nephew, Kairat Satybaldy, spoke publicly to religious communities in southern Kazakhstan as a religious leader. He represents the Salafi branch of Islam.
“Firstly, the forceful suppression of the few remaining centers of resistance continues,” says Daniil Kislov. – Secondly, it seems to me, there is a bargaining aimed at protecting the Nazarbayev family. At the same time, Tokayev dismisses Nazarbayev officials from the KNB, the government and other structures. The Nazarbayev family is still a sacred cow. In particular, our editorial office received a letter from the Ministry of Information of Kazakhstan, in which the department threatens us with a criminal case for disseminating “false information”, which means my article on the role of Nazarbayev's relatives in the protests. This suggests that my assessment of what happened hit a painful point on the body of Kazakhstan's statehood. Instead of accusations, the Kazakh authorities should have provided the public with comprehensive and truthful information about what happened, or let it be at least more convincing than the version about the sortie of several thousand “sleeping terrorists” who came out of nowhere.
– We do not know this, but we can only evaluate and reason. The last time Nazarbayev appeared in public was on December 28, 2021, with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He was weak and sick, the first president of Kazakhstan was supported by a security guard and Lukashenka. If Nazarbayev is very ill, as is sometimes the case with very elderly leaders of authoritarian countries, then everything becomes absolutely clear.
The very rise in gas prices, which took place on New Year's Eve, I regard as a provocation. It would never occur to any sane person to double the prices of a vital product. In all likelihood, this was an artificial provocation. After the start of the protests, events developed according to the usual rules: the authorities simultaneously suppressed the protesters and made concessions to them. The protests were peaceful enough, although the police used stun grenades, rubber bullets and water cannons against the protesters. But then completely different people joined the protest, who were more aggressive and began to engage in pogroms and looting.
Moreover, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the seizures of administrative buildings did not take place according to the revolutionary canons. For example, in Kyrgyzstan, during the revolutions, people entered local government bodies, occupied offices and proclaimed themselves as new mayors, governors and presidents. In Alma-Ata, the Akimat was simply burned. And we do not know who did it, because the invaders did not make any political demands, they just wreaked havoc. And these “sowers” must be separated from the peaceful protesters.
– There is no definite answer. Perhaps it was a step of despair. After the government was dissolved, and Karim Massimov was fired from the post of head of the KNB, they decided that a serious threat was hanging over them. In this regard, they could unleash their marginals from the outskirts of Alma-Ata, so that they would rob, and then they would extract something for themselves from the created chaos. Secondly, under the guise of the resulting chaos, Nazarbayev's relatives could try to withdraw their capital abroad, destroy some documents, or simply flee abroad.
Of course, it is difficult to explain who can benefit from the defeat of Alma-Ata. But the authorities also have no answer to this question.
– When Tokayev spoke on January 4-5 and called for help from the CSTO, it was clear from him that he was confused. The chiefs of the police and the army did not obey the president; he could only count on his own personal protection. The way the CSTO reacted to Tokayev's appeal suggests that the Kremlin knew what was happening in Kazakhstan and decided to support him. In turn, Nazarbayev, who is the leader of the nation, had to comment on the appeal to the CSTO. He did not, which means he is very bad. Until now, Nazarbayev personally made all the slightest significant decisions for Kazakhstan, but here he decided to remain silent.
– In this case, he himself put an end to his power and its history. No one else will ever listen to him. This is the father who abandoned his young children.
– Maybe so far everything points to exactly this. Most likely, he will only be accused of high treason and convicted in a closed court. That is, we may not be told that it was he who opened the doors of the KNB arsenal for the rioters, ordered the removal of security from buildings, and so on.
Apparently, a couple of days after the start of the protests, Tokayev realized that accusations against at least one member of the Nazarbayev family would cast a shadow on them all. If Masimov is accused, it will discredit the main special service of the country, and it is still necessary to rely on it. Therefore, abstract terrorists will be blamed. Maybe they will find some foreign bosses or local Islamists who were allegedly overslept.
– Of course. Firstly, this is an internal affair of Kazakhstan, and secondly, this case concerns the CSTO. Moreover, one cannot count on an international investigation, because in this case there is no talk of genocide or any other crimes against humanity. Moreover, there were investigations into the events in Andijan and Osh, but we never found out the whole truth.
– They are possible and necessary, but I am afraid that the process will be reversed. Proof of this are the arrests of journalists, trade union leaders, “letters of happiness” addressed to foreign media … But if the Kazakh authorities do not listen to their own people, then protests against corruption, the withdrawal of gas and oil money in an unknown direction, etc., will be repeated. At the same time, the stability of Kazakhstan cannot be built on the same foundations on which the Nazarbayev regime was built.
– I hope that the CSTO will only play a positive role in restoring order within Kazakhstan.